What?

We need to reduce the mining of fossil fuels, and this will seriously undermine the income for coutries producing such fuels. Those countries will have to find sources of income to secure their wealth in years to come. As an example, this applies to the gas being pumped up in the Netherlands.

This makes it attractive for producers of oil, natural gas, coal an uranium to sign in on contracts that guarantee the supply of fossil fuels for years to come, especially if such a contract involves a gradual reduction of the amounts until it reaches zero.

Why?

In countries that sell fossil fuels, the profits from doing so usually are a major part of the national income, and quite often it is so profitable that such countries hardly develop other economic activities. This does not match well with an upcoming reduction in demand for fossil fuels. A predictable pace of reduction however, would give a level of certainty that can enable planning ahead and becoming active in other economic areas.

The mechanism of Peak Oil shows clearly that there will be an ever-decreasing amount of fossil fuel on the World. If the demand continues to rise as is still the case, then we can expect prices to soar. However attractive that may sound, it also implies desparate investments in alternative energy sources. Once those are installed, they will continue to produce and make fossil fuels unnecessary, so a peak in fuel price will be followed by a grately decreased price. This instability is not to anyone's advantage.

The current price for fuels is determined solely through the mechanism of the free market. This is unpractical due to the tendency of markets to optimise locally, looking only at the situation here and now. As soon as an alternative is only slightly more attractive, market players will switch collectively. This leads to such shocks in price developments that fuel producing countries can instantly be reduced to poverty.

On markets, the strongest parties determine the price; and in view of the strength of energy dependency, these strongest parties may use more than just financial force; we have seen several occasions already where oil-producing countries are subjected to war under pretences like "freeing a civilisation" or "bringing democracy". We need not go into the inefficiency of warfare as a way to get what one needs.

How?

Countries that produce fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, coal, uranium) can make a realistic estimation of the pace at which the can continue to produce fossil fuels in the future. That level of production is likely to drop annually by a percentage such as 3% -- a percentage which should just suffice to stay ahead of Peak Oil.

It is important that these estimates are made fairly and realistically. Not only must producers estimate the amount of remaining fuel, but also the pace at which it is expected to be extracted.

This information can be used to sign in on contracts with governments that want to ascertain their future supply of fossil fuels. Such contracts will detail the amounts to be supplied each year; every year the supply will drop a certain amount, until the country's dependency on fossil fuels has dropped to zero. If a supply is requested to the amount of 3% each year then such a contract will last for 33 years and 4 months. During this period, there will of course be a gradual decay, where daily or weekly deliveries are reduced a little bit every time.

To obtain a good contract it will be necessary to determine a pricing scheme for the fuels ahead of time. In view of the long term of the contracts, these prices will probably not be fixed in a national currency, but in a weight of gold instead; gold has had a long-term constant value relation to oil. Of course, payments can be made in other currencies, but the amounts will be related to that day's value of gold.

The countries that take in fuels according to such a contract are likely to restrict the amount of fossil fuel made available on their internal markets, leading to internal price management that will lead to a graduel change to sustainable energy sources. This leads to economic stability and thus helps to prevent wars fought over fossil fuels.

It is a social task of the countries selling fossil fuels to divide the available reserves in a balanced manner; that is the only way to avoid fuel wars altogether.

Where?

• The viewpoint of the consumer of fossil fuels.
• The Dutch climate goals.